Panmure Liberum is a new force in UK Investment Banking and Corporate Broking

Financial markets predict interest rates will be cut in the UK in November 2024, but will they?

By Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research

On Thursday the Bank of England will decide whether to cut UK interest rates for the second time this year. Financial markets see a 0.25% cut - to a Bank Rate of 4.75% - as the most likely outcome. There is a smaller chance that ongoing concerns over service sector inflation, and the uncertain impact of last week’s Budget, might lead the Bank to sit tight and await more economic data. ​

By Joachim Klement, Head of Strategy

As a strategist who uses macroeconomic and other ‘big picture’ data to assess the fortunes of stock markets, I would obviously argue that investors ignore the macroeconomic environment at their peril. Unbiased as I am in this matter, I have chosen to discuss today a study by economists at the Federal Reserve (who are surely just as unbiased as I) that shows analysts can improve their earnings forecasts by paying more attention to macro forecasts.

By Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research

What is the most efficient way to grow the UK economy, and improve living standards? It is a question that often triggers a sharp intake of breath from economists, and the answer invariably involves capital. Too little capital has been invested by the UK private and public sectors over the last four decades. An average of 17% of national income has been invested across this period. This compares to 20% among other G7 economies. A three percentage point difference may not sound like much but - compounded over forty years in a 2.5 trillion-pound economy - that is a lot houses, roads, data centres, power networks, and research.